AbstractWe have analyzed potential collision activities among orbiting objects for the next 100 years from the low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO), to geosynchronous orbit (GEO) regions. The analysis was based on results from the NASA orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND. A total of 30 Monte-Carlo simulations were performed. The 1996-to-2003 launch cycle was repeated in the future projection. No postmission disposal options were applied to satellites and rocket bodies. All collisions among objects 10cm and larger were identified for the analysis.One of the new features of LEGEND is its ability to identify objects involved in collisions individually. This allows the user to better quantify the characteristics of future collision events, for example, by orbit type (e.g., LEO/GTO/GEO, inclination, right ascension of the ascending node), by object type (satellite, rocket body, breakup fragment), by breakup time, by location, and by mass. Our analysis shows that almost all future collisions occur in LEO. Intact–intact catastrophic collisions contribute the most to the generation of future debris populations. The majority of intacts involved in collisions come from future launches. This underlines the importance of postmission disposal of satellites and rocket bodies to reduce future collision activities. More than half of the “projectile fragments” involved in intact–fragment collisions originated from future collisions, indicating the nature of the feedback process in future collisions.Most LEO collisions occur in regions of high spatial density, around 800 and 1000km altitudes. Although there is a wide spread in impact speed, about half of the collisions occur with impact speeds greater than 14km/s.Since collisions are likely to produce more fragments than explosions in the future, it is critical to have a high fidelity model to analyze future collision activities to ensure reliable environment predictions. With the new capabilities of LEGEND we are able to examine the process in great detail and have a better understanding of the nature of collisions.


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    Title :

    Collision activities in the future orbital debris environment


    Contributors:
    Liou, J.-C. (author)

    Published in:

    Advances in Space Research ; 38 , 9 ; 2102-2106


    Publication date :

    2005-06-13


    Size :

    5 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




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