Highlights Describes the use of polynomial chaos to quantify satellite collision and survival probabilities. These methods improve accuracy and only include assumptions used in changeable design parameters. Results demonstrate the need for significantly less computation time when compared to Monte Carlo.

    Abstract This paper presents the application of polynomial chaos (PC) to estimating the probability of collision between two spacecraft. Common methods of quantifying this probability for conjunction assessment use either Monte Carlo analyses or include simplifying assumptions to improve tractability. A PC expansion, or PCE, provides a means for approximating the solution to a large set of stochastic ordinary differential equations, which includes orbit propagation. When compared to Monte Carlo methods, non-intrusive, i.e., sampling-based, PCE generation techniques may greatly reduce the number of orbit propagations required to approximate the possibly non-Gaussian, a posteriori probability density function. The presented PC-based method of computing collision probability requires no fundamental simplifying assumptions, and reduces the computation time compared to Monte Carlo. This paper considers two cases where the common conjunction assessment assumptions are no longer valid. The results indeed demonstrate a reduction in computation time when compared to Monte Carlo, and improved accuracy when compared to simplified techniques.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Satellite collision probability estimation using polynomial chaos expansions


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Advances in Space Research ; 52 , 11 ; 1860-1875


    Publication date :

    2013-08-23


    Size :

    16 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English






    Postmaneuver Collision Probability Estimation Using Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansions

    Jones, Brandon A. / Parrish, Nathan / Doostan, Alireza | AIAA | 2015


    Post-Maneuver Collision Probability Estimation Using Polynomial Chaos (AAS 13-720)

    Jones, B.A. / Parrish, N. / Werner, M.S. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2014


    Verification of Stochastic Solutions Using Polynomial Chaos Expansions

    Huyse, Luc / Bonivtch, Amber / Pleming, Jason et al. | AIAA | 2006