Highlights Propose a new concept of braking rate to accommodate a hypothetical disturbance. Develop a tree structured crash surrogate measure – Aggregated Crash Index. Apply this measure to evaluate the crash risks in a freeway.
Abstract In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to define and estimate a surrogate measure. By imposing a hypothetical disturbance to the leading vehicle, the following vehicle’s action is represented as a probabilistic causal model. After that, a tree is built to describe the eight possible conflict types under the model. The surrogate measure, named Aggregated Crash Index (ACI), is thus proposed to measure the crash risk. This index reflects the accommodability of freeway traffic state to a traffic disturbance. We further apply this measure to evaluate the crash risks in a freeway section of Pacific Motorway, Australia. The results show that the proposed indicator outperforms the three traditional crash surrogate measures (i.e., Time to Collision, Proportion of Stopping Distance, and Crash Potential Index) in representing rear-end crash risks. The applications of this measure are also discussed.
A tree-structured crash surrogate measure for freeways
Accident Analysis and Prevention ; 77 ; 137-148
2015-02-10
12 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
ACI , Aggregated Crash Index , ACPM , Aggregate Conflict Propensity Metric , BRAD , Braking Rate to Accommodate a Disturbance , CPI , Crash Potential Index , DRAC , Deceleration Rate to Avoid Crash , DTMR , Department of Transportation and Main Roads , FHWA , Federal Highway Administration , GEH , Geoffery E. Heavers Test , MADR , Maximum Available Deceleration Rate , MPE , Mean Percentage Error , NGSIM , Next Generation Simulation Programs , PSD , Proportion of Stopping Distance , RMSPE , Root Mean Square Percentage Error , TTC , Time to Collision , <italic>U</italic> , Theil’s Inequality Coefficient , US DOT , United States Department of Transportation , WHO , World Health Organization , Crash surrogate measure , Proactive safety evaluation , Hypothetical disturbance
A tree-structured crash surrogate measure for freeways
Online Contents | 2015
|Novel Crash Surrogate Measure for Freeways
ASCE | 2020
|Analysis of Crash Precursors on Instrumented Freeways
Online Contents | 2002
|Analysis of Crash Precursors on Instrumented Freeways
British Library Conference Proceedings | 2002
|Analysis of Crash Precursors on Instrumented Freeways
Transportation Research Record | 2002
|