Abstract This paper postulates functions for explaining and predicting tourist traffic to Florida. Traditional demand determinants, income and price, are included in the explanatory variable set, and two specifications of the functions are considered. Attention is confined to the auto and plane modes since they account for almost all Florida tourists. The equations are formulated in compliance with specific needs of the State. The data, which cover the period 1961I–1974II, are described in detail. Estimation of the demand equations involves the forty-six quarters ending 1972II with the remaining eight quarters reserved for ex post forecasting. These forecasting results are then compared with those from four naive models. Some effects of the energy crisis appear in the findings, and implications of the analysis for that issue are briefly discussed. Because of multicollinearity the functions are estimated by ridge regression. Straightforward application of ordinary least squares leads to theoretically incorrect algebraic signs in the auto equations and general imprecision in most equations. These anomalies are eliminated by a simple transformation of the data matrix according to the ridge criterion. Models of the type examined here can provide a geographic region with information on important aspects of its tourist population. They can also aid planners in the development of policy.


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    Title :

    Travel demand functions for Florida bound tourists


    Contributors:

    Publication date :

    1976-01-16


    Size :

    8 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



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