Abstract High-speed rail (HSR) has become a competitive mode with aviation for medium-distance intercity travel, given the massive deployment of the HSR infrastructure network in China. While the travel experience with both HSR and air has become more convenient, the systems’ operational reliability in terms of punctuality remains a key concern, especially during disruptive events, such as under severe weather conditions. Although previous studies have attempted to investigate the impact of severe weather events on the operational performance of transportation systems, there is still a lack of ability to forecast to what extent the performance of different transportation systems may vary under various conditions. This study develops an integrated modeling framework that allows us to predict the performance of weather-induced delays of different transportation systems, including HSR and aviation. By applying machine-learning methods to real-world transportation performance data, the study examines the robustness of the method, variations of data characteristics and the different applications of the predictive modeling system. Overall, the concept and modeling framework provide important implications for the improvement of transportation system resilience to various severe weather-related disruptions through the understanding of the impact and its predictability of the system performance.

    Highlights The robustness of different machine-learning methods were compared. The on-time performance of different transportation modes were compared under various weather conditions and travel seasons. The interaction effect of the transportation performance was evaluated. Implications for emergency planning and management were discussed.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Predicting weather-induced delays of high-speed rail and aviation in China


    Contributors:
    Chen, Zhenhua (author) / Wang, Yuxuan (author) / Zhou, Lei (author)

    Published in:

    Transport Policy ; 101 ; 1-13


    Publication date :

    2020-11-19


    Size :

    13 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English





    The impact of high-speed rail on civil aviation in China

    Li, Hongchang / Strauss, Jack / Lu, Liu | Elsevier | 2018


    Weather and rail delays: Analysis of metropolitan rail in Dublin

    Brazil, William / White, Arthur / Nogal, Maria et al. | Elsevier | 2017



    Interaction of High-Speed Rail and Aviation

    Clewlow, Regina R. L. / Sussman, Joseph M. / Balakrishnan, Hamsa | Transportation Research Record | 2012