Abstract Given a limited warning time, an asteroid impact mitigation campaign would hinge on uncertainty-based information consisting of remote observational data of the identified Earth-threatening object, general knowledge of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), and engineering judgment. Due to these ambiguities, the campaign credibility could be profoundly compromised. It is therefore imperative to comprehensively evaluate the inherent uncertainty in deflection and plan the campaign accordingly to ensure successful mitigation. This research demonstrates dual-deflection mitigation campaigns consisting of primary (instantaneous/quasi-instantaneous) and secondary (slow-push) deflection missions, where both deflection efficiency and campaign credibility are taken into account. The results of the dual-deflection campaign analysis show that there are trade-offs between the competing aspects: the launch cost, mission duration, deflection distance, and the confidence in successful deflection. The design approach is found to be useful for multi-deflection campaign planning, allowing us to select the best possible combination of missions from a catalogue of campaign options, without compromising the campaign credibility.

    Highlights We model epistemic uncertainties in fundamental NEO characteristics. Effects of the uncertainties on several deflection attempts are quantitatively assessed. Hazardous NEO mitigation campaigns combining with multiple deflection missions are studied. Mitigation campaigns are optimized through a multi-objective Pareto optimization approach.


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    Title :

    Hazardous near Earth asteroid mitigation campaign planning based on uncertain information on fundamental asteroid characteristics


    Contributors:
    Sugimoto, Y. (author) / Radice, G. (author) / Ceriotti, M. (author) / Sanchez, J.P. (author)

    Published in:

    Acta Astronautica ; 103 ; 333-357


    Publication date :

    2014-02-25


    Size :

    25 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English