Abstract Economic parameters are identified for an in-space industry where the capital is made on one planet, it is transported to and teleoperated on a second planet, and the product is transported off the second planet for consumption. This framework is used to model the long-run cost of lunar propellant production to help answer whether it is commercially competitive against propellant launched from Earth. The prior techno-economic analyses (TEAs) of lunar propellant production had disagreed over this. The “gear ratio on cost” for capital transport, G , and the production mass ratio of the capital, φ , are identified as the most important factors determining competitiveness. The prior TEAs are examined for how they handled these two metrics. This identifies crucial mistakes in some of the TEAs: choosing transportation architectures with high G , and neglecting to make choices for the capital that could achieve adequate φ . The tent sublimation technology has a value of φ that is an order of magnitude better than the threshold for competitiveness even in low Earth orbit (LEO). The strip mining technology is closer to the threshold, but technological improvements plus several years of operating experience will improve its competitiveness, according to the model. Objections from members of the aerospace community are discussed, especially the question whether the technology can attain adequate reliability in the lunar environment. The results suggest that lunar propellant production will be commercially viable and that it should lower the cost of doing everything else in space.

    Highlights Econometrics are developed for multi-planet industry. Modeling is developed for the long run average cost of lunar propellant. Lunar-derived propellant can out-compete Earth-launched propellant. To be competitive, lunar capital must produce ≳35 times its mass in product. Long-term reliability of the lunar capital is the primary remaining concern.


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    Title :

    Economics of in-space industry and competitiveness of lunar-derived rocket propellant


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Acta Astronautica ; 207 ; 425-444


    Publication date :

    2023-03-13


    Size :

    20 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




    Design of a LOX/Aluminum Lunar Propellant Rocket Engine

    Wickman, J. H. / American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics / Society of Automotive Engineers et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1994