Abstract This study aims to establish a novel approach for predicting urban pavement damage without using any road inspection data. For this purpose, three indicators are constructed to describe the road-use intensity based on the concept of centrality in transportation planning and economic geography. These indicators are defined to represent two variables: importance to the city and centrality for surrounding users. In addition, these indicators are adopted in a model for pavement damage prediction that follows a classic logit form, the application of which is illustrated for a selected sample area in Beijing. The significance and validity of each indicator are verified. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed model is acceptable and achieves a prediction accuracy rate that is generally greater than 85%. Furthermore, the proposed approach is more cost-effective than traditional methods of pavement damage prediction.

    Highlights We establish a route for predicting urban pavement damage without road inspection. Three new indicators are constructed based on centrality for different facilities. A case study of Beijing is conducted to testify validity of proposed approach. Results indicate acceptable efficiency of the model and indicators in prediction.


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    Title :

    A novel approach for predicting urban pavement damage based on facility information: A case study of Beijing, China


    Contributors:
    Li, Sirui (author) / Liu, Ying (author) / Wang, Pengfei (author) / Liu, Peng (author) / Meng, Jun (author)

    Published in:

    Transport Policy ; 91 ; 26-37


    Publication date :

    2020-02-26


    Size :

    12 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




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