Highlights Energy consumption and CO2 emission from road transport in Brazil. A System Dynamics model evaluates different policies focusing on the energy matrix. Six scenarios were simulated over 11 years, between 2019 and 2030. The continuous growth of fleet and GDP minimizes the proposed changes. More audacity will be required from government actions to effectively change.
Abstract The transport system is a key sector for the development of a country, but it demands significant energy from fossil fuels which emit considerable amounts of greenhouse gases. Given the importance of the sector and its polluting potential, this paper aims to evaluate the energy consumption and CO2 emission from road transport in Brazil given some policies foreseen in the country. A System Dynamics (SD) model involved different policies focusing on the energy matrix: increased participation of ethanol, biodiesel, and electricity, as well as a policy aimed at increasing the energy efficiency of vehicles. Six scenarios were simulated over 11 years, between 2019 and 2030, from different perspectives. The results showed that the increase in bioenergy use such as ethanol and biodiesel is not sufficient for reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions in a significant way. The same results were obtained when considering the introduction of electricity and energy efficiency improvement at expected rates. Despite the attempt to make the energy matrix of the transport sector less dependent on fossil fuels, the fleet and GDP continue to grow, even smoothly, which minimizes the effect of the proposed changes. More audacity will be required from government actions, in addition to integration with other proposals, such as mode choice, vehicle utilization, network connectivity, and new technologies, to effectively change energy consumption and emissions in the sector.
Policy influence in the dynamic of energy and carbon dioxide emissions intensity of Brazilian road transport
2021-10-05
11 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
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