Highlights Dynamic short-term collision probability is analyzed based on traffic, geometric, and weather data. Data imbalance is addressed by employing SMOTE and class weight methods. LSTM-CNN and a random-effects logit model are utilized for analysis. LSTM-CNN outperforms both the SSAE-LSTM and CatBoost in terms of AUC and true positive rate. A larger standard deviations of downstream flow, speed difference, and occupancy difference increase the probability of crash. A higher proportion of ETC lanes negatively impacts the probability of crash.

    Abstract Toll plazas are commonly recognized as bottlenecks on toll roads, where vehicles are prone to crashes. However, there has been a lack of research analyzing and predicting dynamic short-term crash risk specifically at toll plazas. This study utilizes traffic, geometric, and weather data to analyze and predict dynamic short-term collision occurrence probability at mainline toll plazas. A random-effects logit regression model is employed to identify crash precursors and assess their impacts on the probability of crash occurrence at toll plazas. Meanwhile, a Long Short-Term Memory Convolutional Neural Network (LSTM-CNN) network is applied for crash prediction. The results of random-effects logit regression model indicate that the flow standard deviation of downstream, upstream occupancy, speed difference and occupancy difference between upstream and downstream positively influence the probability of crash occurrence. Conversely, an increase in the proportion of ETC lanes negatively impacts the probability of crash occurrence. Additionally, there appears a higher likelihood of crashes occurring during summer at toll plaza area. Furthermore, to address the issue of data imbalance, Synthetic Minority Oversampling Techniques (SMOTE) and class weight methods were employed. Stacked Sparse AutoEncoder-Long Short-Term Memory (SSAE-LSTM) and CatBoost were developed and their performance was compared with the proposed model. The results demonstrated that the LSTM-CNN model outperformed the other models in terms of the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values and the true positive rate. The findings of this study can assist engineers in selecting suitable traffic control strategies to improve traffic safety in toll plaza areas. Moreover, the developed collision prediction model can be incorporated into a real-time safety management system to proactively prevent traffic crash.


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    Title :

    Dynamic short-term crash analysis and prediction at toll plazas for proactive safety management


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2023-12-31




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




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