AbstractThis paper considers the errors that arise in using outdated accident prediction models in road safety scheme evaluation. Methods to correct for regression-to-mean (RTM) effects in scheme evaluation normally rely on the use of accident prediction models. However, because accident risk tends to decline over time, such models tend to become outdated and the estimated treatment effect is then exaggerated. A new correction procedure is described which can effectively eliminate such errors.


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    Title :

    Sources of error in road safety scheme evaluation: a method to deal with outdated accident prediction models


    Contributors:
    Hirst, W.M. (author) / Mountain, L.J. (author) / Maher, M.J. (author)

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2003-05-23


    Size :

    11 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English





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