Abstract The collision probability between a spacecraft and another object in Earth orbit can be expressed as a function of the orbital perigee, apogee, and inclination of the object. Usually, the probability is not a sensitive function of inclination. Collision can only occur when the spacecraft is located at an altitude which is between the perigee and apogee altitudes of the object. The probability per unit time is largest when the perigee and apogee are nearly equal (i.e., the orbit is nearly circular). Therefore, it is usually concluded that objects in circular orbits represent the greatest hazard to other spacecraft. However, at low altitudes, atmospheric drag causes perigee and apogee to change with time, such that circular orbits have a much shorter lifetime than many of the elliptical orbits which pass through the lower altitudes. Consequently, when the collision probability is integrated over the lifetime of the orbiting object, some elliptical orbits are found to have a much higher total collision probability than circular orbits. Objects in these elliptical orbits could represent the greater source of hazardous objects to spacecraft operating in low Earth orbit. Some common objects in these elliptical orbits are rocket bodies used to boost payloads from low Earth orbit to geosynchronous orbit.
Collision probability at low altitudes resulting from elliptical orbits
Advances in Space Research ; 10 , 3-4 ; 393-396
1989-01-01
4 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Multiple site return probability of spacecraft from circular and elliptical orbits
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