This paper presents on-going work on a new tool that validates severe weather forecasts based on synthetic satellite data against satellite observations. The algorithm Cb-TRAM is used for tracking and monitoring objects of severe convection both in observed satellite imagery from METEOSAT SEVIRI and in synthetic satellite images forecasted by the German Weather Service (DWD) COSMO-DE model. Objects are defined by the area where convection is detected based on certain thresholds in Cb-TRAM, together with the vertical extent of the cloud cell. The validation tool compares size, displacement, overlap, intensity distribution and history of the observed and forecasted objects and thereby assesses the quality of the forecast. The functioning of the method is demonstrated for case studies of severe thunderstorms. If several forecasts of one object are available (e.g. from an ensemble forecast), this method enables the selection of the forecast that agrees best with the observation and that could then be used to estimate the future thunderstorm evolution. In particular, this method has the potential to close the gap between nowcasting and forecasting. It is part of an integrated thunderstorm forecast system for air traffic named WxFUSION (Weather Forecast User Oriented System Including Object Nowcasting) which is currently under development within the framework of the DLR project “Wetter und Fliegen”, in close collaboration with the DWD.


    Access

    Download


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Validation of severe weather forecasts based on synthetic satellite data as part of an integrated thunderstorm forecast system


    Contributors:

    Conference:

    2008 ; Darmstadt


    Publication date :

    2008-09-09


    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English






    Commercial Aviation's Thunderstorm Forecast Product Accuracy

    Schultz, A. W. / Fahey, T. H. / Hartsough, C. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1999


    Improved thunderstorm weather information for pilots through ground and satellite based observing systems

    Tafferner, Arnold / Forster, Caroline / Hagen, Martin et al. | German Aerospace Center (DLR) | 2010

    Free access

    WEATHER FORECAST SYSTEM AND WEATHER FORECAST METHOD

    YAMAGUCHI SATOSHI / MABUCHI MUTSUMI / IMANISHI RYOSUKE | European Patent Office | 2021

    Free access