Approach is based on recent developments in statistics, reliability, cost-effectiveness analysis, and decision theory; cost-effectiveness model shows that optimum design is achieved when tradeoffs of weight, reliability, cost, etc, of each structural component match system tradeoffs; model is enlarged to that of statistical decision theory; Bayesian statistical analysis overcomes serious problems with confidence-in-reliability formulas; decision theory defines best design compromise; three examples relate to optimizing weight and risk of penetration of meteoroid shield, predicting reliability of missile part subject to fatigue, and launch vehicle shell subject to buckling.
Predicting structural reliability for design decisions
J Spacecraft Rockets
Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets ; 4 , n 3
1967
7 pages
Article (Journal)
English
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Predicting structural reliability for design decisions.
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