Abstract Contrails, formed by aircraft engines, are a major component of aviation’s impact on anthropogenic climate change. Contrail avoidance is a potential option to mitigate this warming effect, however, uncertainties surrounding operational constraints and accurate formation prediction make it unclear whether it is feasible. Here we address this gap with a feasibility test through a randomized controlled trial of contrail avoidance in commercial aviation at the per-flight level. Predictions for regions prone to contrail formation came from a physics-based simulation model and a machine learning model. Participating pilots made altitude adjustments based on contrail formation predictions for flights assigned to the treatment group. Using satellite-based imagery we observed 64% fewer contrails in these flights relative to the control group flights, a statistically significant reduction (p = 0.0331). Our targeted per-flight intervention allowed the airline to track their expected vs actual fuel usage, we found that there is a 2% increase in fuel per adjusted flight. This study demonstrates that per-flight detectable contrail avoidance is feasible in commercial aviation.


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    Title :

    Feasibility test of per-flight contrail avoidance in commercial aviation


    Contributors:
    Aaron Sonabend-W (author) / Carl Elkin (author) / Thomas Dean (author) / John Dudley (author) / Noman Ali (author) / Jill Blickstein (author) / Erica Brand (author) / Brian Broshears (author) / Sixing Chen (author) / Zebediah Engberg (author)


    Publication date :

    2024




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Unknown




    Feasibility test of per-flight contrail avoidance in commercial aviation

    Sonabend-W, Aaron / Elkin, Carl / Dean, Thomas et al. | Springer Verlag | 2024

    Free access

    Feasibility test of per-flight contrail avoidance in commercial aviation

    Sonabend-W, Aaron / Elkin, Carl / Dean, Thomas et al. | Springer Verlag | 2024

    Free access

    Contrail Avoidance Project Summary

    Noppel, Frank / Singh, Riti | SAE Technical Papers | 2007


    Contrail Avoidance Project Summary

    Noppel, F. / Singh, R. / Society of Automotive Engineers | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2007