This study investigates the application of machine learning (ML) to understand and mitigate winter road risks while addressing model interpretability. Using 26,970 winter crash records collected over four years in Edmonton, Canada, we developed and compared three ML-based winter crash frequency models: XGBoost, Random Forest, and LightGBM. To enhance interpretability, we applied SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), providing insights into feature contributions. Our analysis incorporated micro-level variables such as collision records, weather conditions, and road characteristics, as well as macro-level variables such as land use patterns, spatial characteristics (via Hot Spot Analysis), and traffic exposure (estimated using Ordinary Kriging). Among the models tested, XGBoost outperformed others, achieving a testing R2 of 92.67%, MAE of 3.64, and RMSE of 5.77. SHAP analyses on XGBoost provided both global and local explanations. At a global level, road type, speed limit, and traffic enforcement cameras were identified as key factors influencing crash frequency while locally, distinct features of high- and low-crash locations were highlighted, supporting targeted risk mitigation strategies. By bridging the gap between model accuracy and interpretability, this study demonstrates the value of interpretable ML models in improving winter road safety, offering actionable insights for informed decision-making and resource allocation in winter road maintenance.


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    Title :

    Analyzing Winter Crash Dynamics Using Spatial Analysis and Crash Frequency Prediction Models with SHAP Interpretability


    Contributors:
    Zehua Shuai (author) / Tae J. Kwon (author)


    Publication date :

    2025




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Unknown




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