Traffic prediction is highly significant for intelligent traffic systems and traffic management. eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), a scalable tree lifting algorithm, is proposed and improved to predict more high-resolution traffic state by utilizing origin-destination (OD) relationship of segment flow data between upstream and downstream on the highway. In order to achieve fine prediction, a generalized extended-segment data acquirement mode is added by incorporating information of Automatic Number Plate Recognition System (ANPRS) from exits and entrances of toll stations and acquired by mathematical OD calculation indirectly without cameras. Abnormal data preprocessing and spatio-temporal relationship matching are conducted to ensure the effectiveness of prediction. Pearson analysis of spatial correlation is performed to find the relevance between adjacent roads, and the relative importance of input modes can be verified by spatial lag input and ordinary input. Two improved models, independent XGBoost (XGBoost-I) with individual adjustment parameters of different sections and static XGBoost (XGBoost-S) with overall adjustment of parameters, are conducted and combined with temporal relevant intervals and spatial staggered sectional lag. The early_stopping_rounds adjustment mechanism (EAM) is introduced to improve the effect of the XGBoost model. The prediction accuracy of XGBoost-I-lag is generally higher than XGBoost-I, XGBoost-S-lag, XGBoost-S, and other baseline methods for short-term and long-term multistep ahead. Additionally, the accuracy of the XGBoost-I-lag is evaluated well in nonrecurrent conditions and missing cases with considerable running time. The experiment results indicate that the proposed framework is convincing, satisfactory, and computationally reasonable.


    Access

    Download


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Spatio-Temporal Segmented Traffic Flow Prediction with ANPRS Data Based on Improved XGBoost


    Contributors:
    Bo Sun (author) / Tuo Sun (author) / Pengpeng Jiao (author)


    Publication date :

    2021




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Unknown




    Traffic flow prediction method for multivariate traffic flow spatio-temporal data information

    LI LIN / CHEN HAOJI / CHEN KANG et al. | European Patent Office | 2024

    Free access

    Spatio-Temporal AutoEncoder for Traffic Flow Prediction

    Liu, Mingzhe / Zhu, Tongyu / Ye, Junchen et al. | IEEE | 2023


    Global spatio‐temporal dynamic capturing network‐based traffic flow prediction

    Haoran Sun / Yanling Wei / Xueliang Huang et al. | DOAJ | 2023

    Free access

    Global spatio‐temporal dynamic capturing network‐based traffic flow prediction

    Sun, Haoran / Wei, Yanling / Huang, Xueliang et al. | Wiley | 2023

    Free access

    Traffic flow spatio-temporal data prediction method, system, device and medium

    XIA YUANQING / YAN TIJIN / GONG HENGHENG et al. | European Patent Office | 2023

    Free access