Definite stochasticity and uncertainty exists in traffic flow operation on urban arterials. In the case of congestion, reliability of urban arterials is significantly affected by the correlation of traffic statues between consecutive links. To accurately describe and quantitatively analyze the influence of congestion correlation on operational reliability of urban arterials, a mesh search algorithm is proposed to identify the congestion correlation. A travel time reliability model is established through a double-layer Monte Carlo simulation, combining the probability of different traffic statuses and the corresponding travel time distribution characteristics. Lastly, verification of the proposed model is completed using an empirical case of South Fuzhou Road in Qingdao City, based on multi-source fusion of the loop detector data and electric police data. The result suggests that the proposed model applies well to the actual spatial-temporal evolution mechanism and reliability evaluation of arterial congestion.
Modeling Operational Reliability of Urban Arterials Considering Congestion Correlations
18th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals ; 2018 ; Beijing, China
CICTP 2018 ; 1523-1535
2018-07-02
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
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