This paper introduces application of Shackle's model for highway project evaluation under uncertainty. Shackle's model overcomes limitations of existing risk-based approaches for project evaluation by: (1) using degree of surprise as a measure of uncertainty instead of probability distribution, (2) introducing a priority index to jointly evaluate each outcome and degree of surprise pain, and (3) establishing a focus gain-over-loss ratio as the basis of project comparison under uncertainty. Survey data were utilized to calibrate systemwide focus ratio functions to help establish focus ratios as project benefits under uncertainty. The calibrated focus ratio functions were applied to data on past candidate projects for Indiana state highway programming in 1998–2001 to establish focus ratios for individual projects. The computed focus ratios as project benefits were further utilized in an existing optimization model for project selection. It was found that consistency matching rate between lists of projects selected using proposed methodology and list of projects actually implemented was at a minimum of 84 percent. The model could be used by transportation agencies for enhanced highway project evaluation under uncertainty in long-range planning and programming.
Application of Shackle's Model for Highway Project Evaluation Under Uncertainty
Ninth International Conference on Applications of Advanced Technology in Transportation (AATT) ; 2006 ; Chicago, Illinois, United States
2006-08-04
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
Application of Shackle's Model for Highway Project Evaluation under Uncertainty
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