This study incorporates drivers’ route diversion behavior (DRDB) into a dynamic origin destination (OD) demand estimation and prediction (DODE) model and establishes a group route guidance model based on an integrated demand–diversion prediction model. Test results of the case study show that the integrated demand–diversion prediction model can consider time-varying OD demand, time-varying traffic characteristics, and dynamic DRDB under information provision. The maximum deviation between the real OD volumes and DODE model under information provision is approximately 11.46%, MAPE is 4.53%, and normalized RMSE is 5.29%. Under the scenarios with fixed time-dependent OD demand and fixed compliance rates, the effectiveness of group route guidance is significantly reduced compared with that under the scenario with real time-dependent OD demand and real compliance rate. The proposed model can accurately estimate and predict the possible DRDB and the effects of traffic information on OD demand prediction by using real-time traffic detected data. Moreover, the proposed model can enhance the accuracy of OD demand and traffic state prediction under information provision, thereby increasing the effectiveness of the proposed network route guidance strategies.


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    Title :

    Real-Time Group Route Guidance Based on an Integrated Demand–Diversion Prediction Model: Case Study


    Contributors:
    Xu, Tiandong (author) / Hao, Yuan (author) / Zhou, Li-Zheng (author)

    Conference:

    International Conference on Transportation and Development 2020 ; 2020 ; Seattle, Washington (Conference Cancelled)



    Publication date :

    2020-08-31




    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English





    Complementary Diversion-Sensitive Route Guidance Systems

    Kountras, A. K. / Stathopoulos, A. / IEEE; IEE | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1993


    Complementary diversion-sensitive route guidance systems

    Kountras, A. / Stathopoulos, A. | IEEE | 1993


    Real-time Group Route Diversion Control Considering Dynamic Response Behavior

    Xu, Tiandong / Hao, Yuan / Yu, Yao et al. | IEEE | 2020