In a typical traffic time series, a within-day seasonal cycle is evident from the similarity of traffic data from one day to the next; a within-week seasonal cycle can be observed when comparing traffic data on corresponding days of adjacent weeks. Recently a new method called the double seasonal (DS) Holt-Winters method has been proposed to deal with double seasonality in time series. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of using the DS method to account for both within-day and within-week seasonal cycles in traffic time series. Based on speed data from Freeway I-5, California, the DS method, the standard Holt-Winters method and the ARIMA method are employed to perform short-term traffic forecasting. The result shows that the proposed DS model outperforms the other two methods, indicating that the double seasonal Holt-Winters approach is a promising and effective method for short-term traffic forecasting.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Short-Term Traffic Forecasting Using the Double Seasonal Holt-Winters Method


    Contributors:
    Yu, Ye (author) / Sun, Lu (author) / Li, Gen (author)

    Conference:

    16th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals ; 2016 ; Shanghai, China


    Published in:

    CICTP 2016 ; 162-173


    Publication date :

    2016-07-01




    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



    Short-term Forecast Model of Vehicles Volume Based on ARIMA Seasonal Model and Holt-Winters

    Wang Zhi-Hui / Lu Chen-Yang / Pu Bin et al. | DOAJ | 2017

    Free access

    Prediction Scheme of Railway Passenger Flow Based on Multiplicative Holt-Winters Model

    Wei, Zhuo Min ;Song, Hong Chao | Trans Tech Publications | 2013


    Adaptive Seasonal Time Series Models for Forecasting Short-Term Traffic Flow

    Shekhar, Shashank / Williams, Billy M. | Transportation Research Record | 2007



    Short-term Traffic Forecasting using Neuronal Network

    Dochy, T. / Danech-Pajouh, M. / Lechevallier, Y. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1995