The scenic area generates a tourism trips system, which is essentially different from other trips of such purposes as commuting and business, the traditional four-step method is not suitable for tourism travel demand forecasting. A basic forecasting framework was established for the inner trips of scenic areas which are little influenced by trips of residents, relatively enclosed and have regular travel routes. Based on the features of road traffic and the external tourists' trips, a grey model was established to forecast the number of visitors and vehicles coming to the scenic area, and a probability distribution model was proposed to forecast the tourist flows of the main scenery spots. Meanwhile, according to the layout of scenic spots and routes, got the weighting of every road in the scenic area, established weighing model to forecast the vehicle flows on the main roads. Finally, the above models and methods were applied to Lushan scenic area, where the results are in accordance with the practical case.


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    Title :

    Tourism Travel Demand Forecast Method: A Case Study of Lushan Scenic Area


    Contributors:
    Ren, Gang (author) / Liu, Xiaoqing (author) / Li, Zimu (author)

    Conference:

    Second International Conference on Transportation Engineering ; 2009 ; Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China



    Publication date :

    2009-07-29




    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




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