We analyze the characteristic features of traffic breakdown. To describe this phenomenon we apply to the probabilistic model regarding the jam emergence as the formation of a large car cluster on highway. In these terms the breakdown occurs through the formation of a certain critical nucleus in the metastable vehicle flow, which enables us to confine ourselves to a one-cluster-model. We assume that, first, the growth of the car cluster is governed by attachment of cars to the cluster whose rate is mainly determined by the mean headway distance between the car in the vehicle flow and, may be, also by the headway distance in the cluster. Second, the cluster dissolution is determined by the car escape from the cluster whose rate depends on the cluster size directly. We write the appropriate master equation converted then into the Fokker-Planck equation for the cluster distribution function and analyze the formation of the critical car cluster due to the climb over a certain potential barrier. Numerical estimates of the obtained characteristics and the experimental data of the traffic breakdown are compared. In particular, we draw the conclusion that the characteristic intrinsic time scale of the breakdown phenomenon should be about one minute and explain the cause why the traffic volume interval inside which traffic breakdown is observed is sufficiently wide.
Probabilistic Description of Traffic Breakdown
International Conference on Traffic and Transportation Studies (ICTTS) 2002 ; 2002 ; Guilin, China
2002-07-10
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
Probabilistic Description of Traffic Breakdown
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