This analysis estimates collision risks between tracked satellites based on the statistically expected collision rate N ˙ c and number of collisions N c , which are closely related to the collision probability P c . For isolated encounters, N c equals P c . For multi-encounter interactions, N c can exceed P c and is significantly easier to approximate semi-analytically. Estimating N c requires integrating the collision rate over time throughout an interaction, with each required N ˙ c value calculated as a statistical expectation value based on the uncertainty distributions of initial orbital states. The uncertainty distributions are estimated from orbit determination analyses of satellite trajectory measurements. The formulation accounts for the nonlinear orbital motion of the satellites, and derives N c and N ˙ c expressions for Monte Carlo simulations as well as semi-analytical approximations for single- and multi-encounter interactions.


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    Title :

    Expected Collision Rates for Tracked Satellites


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2021-05-01




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




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