This analysis estimates collision risks between tracked satellites based on the statistically expected collision rate and number of collisions , which are closely related to the collision probability . For isolated encounters, equals . For multi-encounter interactions, can exceed and is significantly easier to approximate semi-analytically. Estimating requires integrating the collision rate over time throughout an interaction, with each required value calculated as a statistical expectation value based on the uncertainty distributions of initial orbital states. The uncertainty distributions are estimated from orbit determination analyses of satellite trajectory measurements. The formulation accounts for the nonlinear orbital motion of the satellites, and derives and expressions for Monte Carlo simulations as well as semi-analytical approximations for single- and multi-encounter interactions.
Expected Collision Rates for Tracked Satellites
Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets ; 58 , 3 ; 715-728
2021-05-01
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Expected Collision Rates for Tracked Satellites
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