This study formulates a semi-analytical method to estimate statistically expected collision rates and probabilities between Earth-orbiting satellites, based on orbital state and covariance ephemeris tables. The method focuses on low-velocity interactions, for which the conjunction-by-conjunction estimation approach can be inaccurate. Comparisons to Monte Carlo simulations validate the accuracy of the calculation method. The ability to process unevenly sampled ephemerides allows application to satellites that execute frequent or continuous thrusting maneuvers. Estimating uncertainties caused by ephemeris interpolation inaccuracies enables the algorithm to detect input ephemerides with inadequate time sampling. Additionally accounting for satellite shapes and orientations requires input ephemerides that tabulate attitude information.


    Access

    Download


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Ephemeris-Based Satellite Collision Rates and Probabilities


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2025-01-01




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




    An Introductory Analysis of Satellite Collision Probabilities

    Carlton-Wippern, K. C. / American Astronautical Society / AIAA | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1993


    Outer planet satellite ephemeris development

    DUXBURY, T. / ANANDA, M. | AIAA | 1972


    Outer planet satellite ephemeris development.

    Duxbury, T. C. / Ananda, M. P. | NTRS | 1972



    Estimation for Satellite Collision Probabilities Using Importance Sampling (AAS 14-203)

    Lawrence, E. / Higdon, D. / Walker, A. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2014