For the structure with evidence uncertainty, existing studies predominantly address time-invariant scenarios, neglecting the dynamic effects of material degradation and time-varying loads. To bridge this gap, this study proposes a novel framework for quantifying time-dependent reliability under evidence uncertainty. First, the lower and upper bounds of time-dependent failure probability are defined using belief and plausibility theory in evidence measures. Then, a crude Monte Carlo simulation is employed to estimate the bounds of time-dependent failure probability, but its prohibitive computational cost motivates the development of an efficient double-loop kriging method (DLKM). The DLKM adaptively constructs two surrogate models: an inner-loop kriging model to capture extremal responses over time and an outer-loop model to classify failure events. A key contribution is a bespoke learning function that accelerates convergence by selectively sampling critical points for extremum identification. Finally, several numerical examples are employed to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.


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    Title :

    Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis Method Under Evidence Uncertainty


    Contributors:
    Feng, Kaixuan (author) / Wang, Lu (author) / Shi, Yayun (author)

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2025-08-05




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




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