This paper shows how satellite owners/operators may use sequential estimates of collision probability, along with a prior assessment of the base risk of collision, in a compound hypothesis ratio test to inform decisions concerning collision risk mitigation maneuvers. The compound hypothesis test reduces to a simple probability ratio test, which appears to be a novel result. The test satisfies tolerances related to targeted false alarm and missed detection rates. This result is independent of the method one uses to compute the probability density that one integrates to compute collision probability. A well-established test case from the literature shows that this test yields acceptable results within the constraints of a typical operational conjunction assessment decision timeline. Another example illustrates the use of the test in a practical conjunction assessment scenario based on operations of the International Space Station.
Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Space Object Conjunction Assessment
Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics ; 37 , 5 ; 1385-1396
2014-09-01
Conference paper , Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Wald sequential probability ratio test for space object conjunction assessment
Online Contents | 2014
|Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Analysis of Orbital Conjunction Data (AIAA 2013-5187)
British Library Conference Proceedings | 2013
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