Railway network operations form complex systems. Any disruption adversely impacts the operations, causing long delays. Many studies investigate the effect of a railway incident; however, a holistic quantification is lacking. This study aims to present an estimation framework for flexible traffic management systems, which can help reduce network delays and enable dispatchers to make better‐informed decisions. An incident's impact on the network is estimated by creating a sequence of models, which predict two key variables. Firstly, the incident duration is predicted, which is used to predict the second variable: total delay caused by the incident. Various influencing attributes are examined, such as weather, network and railway‐related attributes. Their relationship with the response variables is studied in order to understand the incident's impact. Using incident data from the Danish Railways, machine learning models are estimated. The results show that neural networks outperform other competing models for total delay modelling, resulting in improved prediction by the estimation framework, thus giving higher accuracy than the stand‐alone models in the study.


    Zugriff

    Download


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    An estimation framework to quantify railway disruption parameters


    Beteiligte:

    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2021-10-01


    Format / Umfang :

    13 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch




    An estimation framework to quantify railway disruption parameters

    Bhagya Shrithi Grandhi / Emmanouil Chaniotakis / Stephan Thomann et al. | DOAJ | 2021

    Freier Zugriff

    Urban Railway Operation Recovery During Disruption

    Jamili, Amin / Nejad, Mohammadreza Ghoreshi | IEEE | 2015


    Disruption handling in large railway networks

    Corman, F. / D Ariano, A. / Hansen, I.A. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2010


    Problem of Railway Traffic Control Devices Disruption

    Białoń, Andrzej | Springer Verlag | 2011


    Estimating the disbenefits of railway service disruption

    McKenna, J. P. / Dowton, A. P. / Harris, N. G. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1996