We propose a probabilistic method to compute the near mid-air collision risk as a function of predicted flight trajectory. The computations use state estimate and covariance from a target tracking filter based on angle-only sensors such as digital video cameras. The majority of existing work is focused on risk estimation at a certain time instant. Here we derive an expression for the integrated risk over the critical time horizon. This is possible using probability for level-crossing, and the expression applies to a three-dimensional piecewise straight flight trajectory. The Monte Carlo technique provides a method to compute the probability, but a huge number of simulations is needed to get sufficient reliability for the small risks that the applications require. Instead we propose a method which through sound geometric and numerical approximations yields a solution suitable for real-time implementations. The algorithm is applied to realistic angle-only tracking data, and shows promising results when compared with the Monte Carlo solution.
Probabilistic Noncooperative Near Mid-Air Collision Avoidance
IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems ; 47 , 2 ; 1265-1276
2011
12 Seiten, 25 Quellen
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Englisch
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