Projecting future traffic is an important stage in any traffic and transportation planning study. Accurate traffic forecasting is vital for transportation planning, highway safety evaluation, traffic operations analysis, and geometric and pavement design among others. In view of its importance, this paper introduces a regression-based traffic forecasting methodology for a one dimensional capacity-constrained highway. Five different prediction functions are tested; the best was selected according to the accuracy of projections against historical traffic data. The three-parameter logistic function produced more accurate projections compared to other functions tested when highway capacity constraints were taken into consideration. The R 2 values at various test locations ranged from 88% to 98%, indicating good prediction capability. Using the Fisher's information matrix approach, the t-statistic test showed all parameters in the logistic function were highly statistically significant. To evaluate reliability of projections, predictive intervals were calculated at a 95% level of confidence. Predictions using the logistic function were also compared to those predicted using the compound growth rate and linear regression methods. The results show that the proposed methodology generates much more reasonable projections than current practices.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff prüfen

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Capacity-constrained traffic forecasting model


    Beteiligte:
    Chimba, Deo (Autor:in) / Lan, Chang-Jen (Autor:in)

    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    01.08.2011




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch




    Capacity-constrained traffic forecasting model

    Chimba, Deo | Online Contents | 2011



    TRAFFIC FORECASTING SYSTEM, TRAFFIC FORECASTING DEVICE, AND TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD

    IWAE TOMOHIDE / OBA YOSHIKAZU / NARUSE KOSUKE et al. | Europäisches Patentamt | 2021

    Freier Zugriff

    Capacity-Constrained Traffic Assignment in Networks with Residual Queues

    Lam, W. H. / Zhang, Y. | British Library Online Contents | 2000


    Traffic forecasting and "gravity model"

    Doganis, R. | Engineering Index Backfile | 1966