This study was instigated in response to the growing national concern over the rapidly expanding rate of energy use in the face of possible fuel shortages. It is primarily concerned with the potential impacts and energy efficiencies of short-term policies designed to induce auto drivers to shift to public transit. The energy efficiencies of various urban passenger transportation modes are analyzed, including automobile, bus, rapid rail, commuter rail, and Dial-a-Ride transit. Policies to induce mode shifts to public transit are structured into alternative scenarios for evaluation. Possible urbanized area transportation energy savings as well as reductions in vehicle miles of travel are estimated first for individual representative cities and then expanded to a national level. Representative cost evaluations of policy actions are included as well. Finally, note is made of projected secondary or indirect impacts of policy design and implementation. Four scenarios were constructed for evaluation. Scenario I consists of modest transit enhancements, Scenario II major transit enhancements, Scenario III the same major transit enhancements combined with auto disincentives, and Scenario IV automobile disincentives alone. The analytical procedures used to estimate the travel mode shifts and energy savings that could be achieved with alternative strategies were applied in the context of actual urban conditions. As it was clearly impractical to prepare separate analyses for all urbanized areas, one representative city was chosen from each of four groupings. Collectively, these four groups covered all urbanized areas in the country. The groupings were made on the basis of transit utilization for journey-to-work purposes and the presence or lack of an extensive rail system. Four representative cities chosen for this study were Albuquerque, San Diego, Chicago, and Baltimore. (ERA citation 03:048237)


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