The invention discloses a charging load aggregation scheduling method for distinguishing uncertainty and optimizing a prediction time domain, and the method comprises the steps: detecting whether an electric vehicle is accessed to a charging pile under the jurisdiction of a charging load aggregator at a current moment, measuring a determined value of an arrival moment for an accessed scene, and carrying out the measurement of a determined value of an arrival moment for a non-accessed scene; the method comprises the following steps: predicting an estimated value of an arrival time, then predicting a network access duration and an expected net charging amount which are difficult to determine at the current time by respectively utilizing conditional probability and maximum likelihood estimation according to different situations that whether the arrival time is a determined value, and finally, further predicting the network access duration and the expected net charging amount which are difficult to determine at the current time based on the shortest prediction time domain length required by each electric vehicle to reach the expected net charging amount. And merging to obtain a total optimization prediction time domain of the aggregated charging load. Through the above steps, necessary charging behavior parameters and prediction time domain length are provided for the charging load aggregation scheduling objective function, and the accuracy and solving efficiency of charging load aggregation scheduling are optimized.
本发明公开了一种区分不确定性和优化预测时域的充电负荷聚合调度方法,该方法检测当前时刻充电负荷聚合商所辖充电桩上是否有电动汽车已经接入,对于已经接入的情景,量测到达时刻的确定值,对于尚未接入的情景,预测到达时刻的估计值,之后,根据到达时刻是否为确定值的不同情景,分别利用条件概率和最大似然估计,预测当前时刻难以确定的入网持续时长和期望净充电量,最后,进一步基于各电动汽车达到期望净充电量所需的最短预测时域长度,合并得到聚合充电负荷的总优化预测时域。通过上述步骤,为充电负荷聚合调度目标函数提供了必要的充电行为参数和预测时域长度,优化了充电负荷聚合调度的准确性和求解效率。
Charging load aggregation scheduling method for distinguishing uncertainty and optimizing prediction time domain
区分不确定性和优化预测时域的充电负荷聚合调度方法
21.07.2023
Patent
Elektronische Ressource
Chinesisch
IPC: | G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES / H02J CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER , Schaltungsanordnungen oder Systeme für die Abgabe oder Verteilung elektrischer Leistung / B60L PROPULSION OF ELECTRICALLY-PROPELLED VEHICLES , Antrieb von elektrisch angetriebenen Fahrzeugen |
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