In Korea, the Seoul-Pusan High Speed Rail (HSR) of which length is 430.7 km is under construction with plan to complete at the end of 2001. Therefore, there will be great change at modal split of this corridor travel, especially at air travel demand. This study analyzed the impact of the Seoul-Pusan HSR on Seoul-Pusan and Seoul-Taegu airlines which are competitive with the HSR. The result of this study can be used for airline companies to prepare the impact and for government to adjust the domestic air transportation planning. First, the modal split model of regional transit travel including air transport was established by using the travel data between Seoul and 9 regional cities where the airplane, express train and express bus are mutually compatitive. Using the model and Pivot Point Method, the travel demands of Seoul-Pusan and Seoul-Taegu airlines in the horizon year (2002) when the HSR would begin service were estimated. Due to the HSR opening, the demand of Seoul-Pusan airline is forecasted to decrease by 87.6% and the demand of the Seoul-Taegu airline of which distance is shorter than that of Seoul-Pusan airline is forecasted to decrease by as much as 89.9%. The demands of Seoul-Pusan and Seoul-Taegu airlines in the horizon year are forecasted to decrease by 83.5% and 86.6% respectively even though compared to present (1994) demands.
Impact of the High Speed Rail on domestic air travel demand
1998
10 Seiten, 6 Quellen
Conference paper
English
Impact of the High-Speed Rail on Domestic Air Travel Demand
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