It is presented a new conditional analysis method for system and safety analysis, which integrates the methods of safety barrier (SBA), fault tree (FTA) and failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into one method. Our approach uses results from the philosophical theories concerning causality and causation. We have adopted the philosophical results to a formal framework of structural equation modelling (SEM): Basic causal patterns can be used to compose complex system structures. Using the intervention method provided by the SEM method, we have developed an algorithm to generate automatically the consequences of failures (primary, secondary and command failures). Beside the classical failure analysis, our approach might serve as a method to give countermeasures and prove their suitability for mitigation or avoidance of undesired events. In the next step, a tool support and the integration of the time parameter are planned (currently, our method is proprietarily implemented using standard mathematical tools).
Structural equation modelling for causal analysis applied to transport systems
Strukturelle Gleichungsmodellierung für Kausalanalysen von Transportsystemen
2012
14 Seiten, 2 Bilder, 3 Tabellen, 17 Quellen
Conference paper
English
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