The objective of the present work is to validate the hydrogen energy roadmap of Japan by analysing the market penetration of FCVs (fuel cell vehicles) and the effects of a carbon tax using an energy system model of Japan based on MARKAL (based on multi-objective linear programming). The results of the analysis show that a hydrogen FCV would not be cost competitive until 2050 without a more severe carbon tax than the government's planned 2.400 JPY/t-C carbon tax. However, as the carbon tax rate increases, instead of conventional vehicles including the gasoline hybrid electric vehicle, hydrogen FCVs gain market penetration earlier and more. By assuming a more severe carbon tax rate, such as 10.000 JPY/t-C, the market share of hydrogen FCVs approaches the governmental goal. This suggests that cheaper vehicle cost and hydrogen cost than those targeted in the roadmap should be attained or subsidies to hydrogen FCV and hydrogen refuelling station will be necessary for achieving the goal of earlier market penetration.
Market penetration analysis of fuel cell vehicles in Japan by using the energy system model MARKAL
EHEC, European Hydrogen Energy Conference, 2 ; 1347-1354
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy ; 32 , 10-11
2007
8 Seiten, 11 Bilder, 1 Tabelle, 21 Quellen
Conference paper
English
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