The future Air Traffic Management (ATM) system will depend on Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) to accommodate the growing demand in air traffic. This system will expect aircraft to follow an assigned 4D-trajectory with high precision, meeting arrival times over established checkpoints with great accuracy. These time-constraints are called Target Windows (TWs). Wind is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty and, consequently, a key point for the improvement of predictability and, ultimately, the implementation of 4D-trajectories. The main aim of this paper is to develop a methodology to characterize these TWs and to assess the uncertainty on the evolution of 4D-trajectories due to the effect of wind. For such purpose, 4D-trajectories are modelled deterministically, using a point mass model and the BADA (Base of Aircraft Data) methodology of EUROCONTROL. In parallel, wind is modelled with a hybrid approach, where the stochastic component captures the error associated with weather forecasts. Through Monte Carlo Simulation, the variability of the trajectory´s parameters is evaluated under different atmospheric scenarios. Using these results, TWs are defined along the different stages of flight, quantifying the uncertainty associated with the aircraft´s position under the effect of wind.
Impact of Wind on the Predictability and Uncertainty Management of 4D-Trajectories
Lect. Notes Electrical Eng.
ENRI International Workshop on ATM/CNS ; 2019 ; Nakano, Japan October 29, 2019 - October 31, 2019
2021-03-24
25 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
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