In view of the uncertainty of the severity of the consequences of the Chinese train control system level 2 (CTCS-2) risk events, the paper puts forward a combined approach to evaluate the consequence severity of a risk event by using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the discount evidence theory on the basis of expert scoring. Firstly, the evaluation index system of consequence severity is established, and the weights of the evaluation indices are calculated by using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Secondly, the membership degree of each evaluation index’s severity grade is calculated by using discount evidence theory. Finally, the weights are multiplied with the membership degree, and the severity grade of risk consequence is determined according to the maximum membership principle. In this paper, taking the CTCS-2 train control system ‘train overspeed unprotected’ risk event as an example, based on expert scoring, the consequence severity of the risk event is evaluated by using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and discounted evidence theory, and the consequence severity of the risk event is assessed as ‘very serious,’ which is consistent with our common sense.
Research on Risk Consequence Severity Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and Evidence Theory
Lect. Notes Electrical Eng.
International Conference on Electrical and Information Technologies for Rail Transportation ; 2019 ; Qingdao, China October 25, 2019 - October 27, 2019
Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Electrical and Information Technologies for Rail Transportation (EITRT) 2019 ; Chapter : 51 ; 529-541
2020-04-04
13 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
British Library Conference Proceedings | 2020
|Pavement Condition Assessment Using Fuzzy Logic Theory and Analytic Hierarchy Process
British Library Online Contents | 2011
|Evaluation of Park and Ride Effect Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process
Springer Verlag | 2022
|