To date, great efforts have been dedicated to develop pavement-deterioration models for low-volume roads. The reliability and usefulness of such models in a pavement-management system stem from using accurate datasets with suitable modelling approaches. The aim of this study is to present an approach for developing absolute empirical deterioration models that are capable of capturing the effects of unobserved variables and correlation errors of time series data for same sections. Multilevel regression analysis has been carried out to develop models for predicting pavement rutting progression as a function of a number of contributing variables, such as traffic loading, pavement strength, climate and drainage condition. This paper presents the modelling approach and developed rutting progression models, during the gradual phase, for two classes of low-volume roads. The results indicate that the effect of time is greater than the other contributing factors on rutting progression. Accuracy and reliability of the developed models are tested using simulation and validation. Deterministic simulation has shown that the developed models can simulate rut depth values and progression rates reasonably well under different typical conditions.


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    Title :

    Multilevel modelling of rutting progression for low-volume roads



    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2017



    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Print


    Language :

    English



    Classification :

    Local classification TIB:    135/7005/1710
    BKL:    55.84 Straßenverkehr



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