The inaccuracies of the aircraft performance models used by trajectory predictors with regard to takeoff weight, thrust, climb profile, and other parameters result in altitude errors during the climb phase that often exceed the vertical separation standard of 1000 ft. This study investigates the potential reduction in altitude trajectory prediction errors that could be achieved for climbing flights if just one additional parameter is made available: top-of-climb time. The top-of-climb matching method developed and evaluated in this paper is straightforward: A set of candidate trajectory predictions is generated using different aircraft weight parameters, and the one that most closely matches top of climb in terms of time is selected. This algorithm was tested using more than 1000 climbing flights in Fort Worth Center. Compared with the baseline trajectory predictions of a real-time research prototype (Center/Terminal Radar Approach Control Automation System), the top-of-climb matching method reduced the altitude root mean square error for a 5 min prediction time by 38%. It also decreased the percentage of flights with absolute altitude error greater than the vertical separation standard of 1000 ft for the same look-ahead time from 55 to 30%.
Top-of-Climb Matching Method for Reducing Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Errors
Journal of aircraft ; 53 , 5
2016
Article (Journal)
English
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