This note describes a method for making long-range (10-20 years) forecasts of Soviet strategic weapon developments. As the end product of a heuristic reasoning process, the methodology has a requirements orientation, based on clues from Soviet military writing, Soviet technology, and Soviet acquisition practices. Progressing through a sequence of four central inquiries, the methodology examines Soviet mission priorities, weapon deficiencies, and weapon options to forecast Soviet weapon choices. These four inquiries are supported by five background inquiries into Soviet military concepts, Soviet perceptions of threat, current Soviet weapon capabilities, Soviet advanced weapon technology, and available Soviet resources. After describing the overall methodology, this note discusses each of the nine inquiries and presents the author's viewpoint on their boundaries and emphasis.
An Approach to Long-Range Forecasting
1981
33 pages
Report
No indication
English
Military Sciences , Forecasting , Strategic weapons , USSR , Long range(Time) , Threat evaluation , Military planning , Military forces(Foreign) , Military requirements , Technology forecasting , Perception(Psychology) , Advanced weapons , Guided missiles , Heuristic methods , strategic analysis , Foreign technology , Soviet perceptions , Strategic aircraft
JPL RAPSO Long-Range Forecasting (AAS 02-223)
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