The invention discloses a travel generation amount prediction method and system. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring user travel data from travel software; screening travel output andtravel attraction at different time points from the travel data to generate a travel output time sequence and a travel attraction time sequence; dividing the travel output time sequence and the travelattraction time sequence into two sections according to time to respectively obtain a parameter fitting sequence and a model inspection sequence; establishing an autoregressive moving average model by utilizing the parameter fitting sequence; judging whether the autoregressive moving average model needs to be adjusted or not by utilizing the model test sequence; if so, adjusting parameters of theautoregressive moving average model by using the model test sequence, and determining the adjusted autoregressive moving average model as a prediction model; and utilizing the prediction model to predict the travel generation amount and the travel attraction amount at the future moment to obtain a predicted travel generation amount. According to the method and the system, the convenience degree of travel generation quantity prediction can be improved.

    本发明公开一种出行生成量预测方法及系统。该方法包括:获取来自出行软件的用户出行数据;从出行数据中筛选不同时间点的出行产生量和出行吸引量生成出行产生量时间序列和出行吸引量时间序列;将出行产生量时间序列和出行吸引量时间序列均按时间划分为两段分别得到参数拟合序列和模型检验序列;利用参数拟合序列建立自回归滑动平均模型;利用模型检验序列判断自回归滑动平均模型是否需要调整;若是,则利用模型检验序列对自回归滑动平均模型的参数进行调整,并将调整后的自回归滑动平均模型确定为预测模型;利用预测模型对未来时刻的出行产生量和出行吸引量进行预测,得到预测出行生成量。本发明的方法及系统能够提高出行生成量预测的便捷程度。


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    Title :

    Travel generation amount prediction method and system


    Additional title:

    一种出行生成量预测方法及系统


    Contributors:
    LU JIAN (author) / WANG CHENGCHEN (author)

    Publication date :

    2020-05-12


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06F ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING , Elektrische digitale Datenverarbeitung



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