AbstractWell-known tools developed for satellite and debris re-entry perform break-up and trajectory simulations in a deterministic sense and do not perform any uncertainty treatment. The treatment of uncertainties associated with the re-entry of a space object requires a probabilistic approach. A Monte Carlo campaign is the intuitive approach to performing a probabilistic analysis, however, it is computationally very expensive. In this work, we use a recently developed approach based on a new derivation of the high dimensional model representation method for implementing a computationally efficient probabilistic analysis approach for re-entry. Both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that affect aerodynamic trajectory and ground impact location are considered. The method is applicable to both controlled and un-controlled re-entry scenarios. The resulting ground impact distributions are far from the typically used Gaussian or ellipsoid distributions.


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    Title :

    Sensitivity analysis and probabilistic re-entry modeling for debris using high dimensional model representation based uncertainty treatment


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Advances in Space Research ; 59 , 1 ; 193-211


    Publication date :

    2016-08-24


    Size :

    19 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English