AbstractUnderstanding the relation between planned and realized flight trajectories and the determinants of flight deviations is of great importance in air traffic management. In this paper we perform an in-depth investigation of the statistical properties of planned and realized air traffic on the German airspace during a 28 day periods, corresponding to an AIRAC cycle. We find that realized trajectories are on average shorter than planned ones and this effect is stronger during night-time than day-time. Flights are more frequently deviated close to the departure airport and at a relatively large angle-to-destination. Moreover, the probability of a deviation is higher in low traffic phases. All these evidences indicate that deviations are mostly used by controllers to give directs to flights when traffic conditions allow it. Finally we introduce a new metric, termed di-fork, which is able to characterize navigation points according to the likelihood that a deviation occurs there. Di-fork allows to identify in a statistically rigorous way navigation point pairs where deviations are more (less) frequent than expected under a null hypothesis of randomness that takes into account the heterogeneity of the navigation points. Such pairs can therefore be seen as sources of flexibility (stability) of controllers traffic management while conjugating safety and efficiency.

    HighlightsWe provide a new metric, called di-fork, able to characterize air traffic deviations from planned trajectories.Such metric might be relevant for the Air Traffic Management procedures.We provide a methodology for devising the navigations points where this metric shows values not compatible with a null hypothesis.Such null hypothesis takes into account the actual heterogeneities of the air traffic system.


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    Title :

    Statistical characterization of deviations from planned flight trajectories in air traffic management


    Contributors:
    Bongiorno, C. (author) / Gurtner, G. (author) / Lillo, F. (author) / Mantegna, R.N. (author) / Miccichè, S. (author)

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2016-10-18


    Size :

    12 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English