Highlights We identify the socioeconomic variables better fitting road freight demand evolution. Discussion: is GDP a suitable explanatory variable for road freight traffic?. Interesting case due to the significant traffic reductions experienced since 2008. GDP may not constitute a suitable explanatory variable for heavy vehicle demand. GDP of transport-intensive sectors (construction, industry) lead to more consistent results.

    Abstract Improving the knowledge of demand evolution over time is a key aspect in the evaluation of transport policies and in forecasting future investment needs. It becomes even more critical for the case of toll roads, which in recent decades has become an increasingly common device to fund road projects. However, literature regarding demand elasticity estimates in toll roads is sparse and leaves some important aspects to be analyzed in greater detail. In particular, previous research on traffic analysis does not often disaggregate heavy vehicle demand from the total volume, so that the specific behavioral patterns of this traffic segment are not taken into account. Furthermore, GDP is the main socioeconomic variable most commonly chosen to explain road freight traffic growth over time. This paper seeks to determine the variables that better explain the evolution of heavy vehicle demand in toll roads over time. To that end, we present a dynamic panel data methodology aimed at identifying the key socioeconomic variables that explain the behavior of road freight traffic throughout the years. The results show that, despite the usual practice, GDP may not constitute a suitable explanatory variable for heavy vehicle demand. Rather, considering only the GDP of those sectors with a high impact on transport demand, such as construction or industry, leads to more consistent results. The methodology is applied to Spanish toll roads for the 1990–2011 period. This is an interesting case in the international context, as road freight demand has experienced an even greater reduction in Spain than elsewhere, since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2008.


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    Title :

    Evolution over time of heavy vehicle volume in toll roads: A dynamic panel data to identify key explanatory variables in Spain


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2015-02-26


    Size :

    16 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




    Explaining light vehicle demand evolution in interurban toll roads: a dynamic panel data analysis in Spain

    Gomez, Juan / Vassallo, José Manuel / Herraiz, Israel | Online Contents | 2015


    Explaining light vehicle demand evolution in interurban toll roads: a dynamic panel data analysis in Spain

    Gomez, Juan / Vassallo, José Manuel / Herraiz, Israel | Online Contents | 2015


    Why toll roads?

    Owen, W. / Dearing, C. | Engineering Index Backfile | 1952


    Economics of toll roads

    Doody, F.S. | Engineering Index Backfile | 1962


    Toll roads in U.S.A

    Starks, H.J.H. | Engineering Index Backfile | 1957