Highlights Seasonal route interruptions of major low-cost carriers in Europe increased recently. Route disruptions or churn are stimulated by changes in the low-cost carrier business model. A logistic regression shows that route churn depends on several route characteristics. Low cost carriers show substantial differences in route churn patterns.

    Abstract Discontinuity of air routes is a subject that has been analysed in various ways. For example, the complex network approach focuses on network robustness and resilience due to route interruptions during a relatively short period. Also seasonal interruptions of air routes are a well-documented phenomenon in the context of demand variability. However, only recently discussions emerge on the more permanent cessation of air routes, the route churn. Today, European low-cost carriers frequently apply route churn in their networks. To enable early route churn detection in these networks, a regression model is developed in which route characteristics explain the churning likelihood of individual routes. The results of the econometric analysis show that churn rates are higher during an economic downturn, within the Eastern European market, between the Eastern and the Mediterranean market and between primary airports. In addition, we find that distance and the number of seats offered have a significant negative effect on the churn likelihood. The results also show significant effects of market share, seasonality and route age on the chance of cessation. To conclude, the paper demonstrates substantial differences in churn behaviour amongst specific low-cost carriers.


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    Title :

    Route churn: an analysis of low-cost carrier route continuity in Europe


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2015-04-14


    Size :

    11 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




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