AbstractThis paper examines the statistical properties of estimates of fatal accident rates, mean fatalities per accident, and fatality rates when these estimates are based on past accident data. The statistical properties are illustrated by two long-term transport fatal accident datasets from Great Britain, the principal one for railways and the other for roads, chosen to provide a statistical contrast. In both modes, the accident rates have fallen substantially over the long term. Two statistical estimates of current accident and fatality rates are presented for each dataset, one based only on recent data and the other based on estimates of long-term trends. The trend-based estimate is preferred for train accidents because this makes maximum use of the limited and variable data; the recent data are preferred for road accidents because this avoids unnecessary dependence on modelling the trends. For train accidents, the estimated fatality rate based on past accidents is compared with an estimate produced by the railway industry using a risk model. The statistical estimate is less than half the industry’s estimate, and the paper concludes that the statistical estimate is to be preferred.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Estimating transport fatality risk from past accident data


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2002-02-20


    Size :

    14 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




    Estimating transport fatality risk from past accident data

    Evans, Andrew W. | Online Contents | 2003


    Main determinants of fatality risk of a road accident

    Carlsson, C. / International Association of Accident and Traffic Medicine | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2000


    Smart Accident Fatality Reduction (SAFR) System

    Joseph, Daniel Bennett / Sivasankaran, K. / Venkat, P. R. et al. | Springer Verlag | 2023


    Multivariate modeling of pedestrian fatality risk through on the spot accident investigation

    Badea, A. / Furones, A. / Páez, F. J. et al. | Springer Verlag | 2010


    Multivariate modeling of pedestrian fatality risk through on the spot accident investigation

    Badea, A. / Furones, A. / Páez, F. J. et al. | Online Contents | 2010