Highlights An finding of a burst passenger in-flow usually coming after an abnormal out-flow. Proposing and formulating the problem early warning of burst passenger flow. Designing a novel framework consisting of a detection model and a prediction model. Evaluating the framework with real transportation data with satisfactory performance.

    Abstract Burst passenger flow in the public transportation system is serious to public safety. Existing works mainly focused on prediction and monitoring of regular passenger flow, which are not suitable for burst passenger flow. In this article, we first formulate the problem as early warning of burst passenger flow. Next, we design a novel framework to solve this problem by our observation that a burst passenger in-flow usually comes after an abnormal passenger out-flow for a subway station, especially when there is a large-scale social crowd event. Our framework consists of two models: (1) Abnormal out-flow detection (AOFD) which detects abnormal out-flows and warns the city administration of the burst in-flow fairly ahead of time. (2) Burst in-flow peak estimation (BIFPE) which estimates burst in-flow peak time and volume. We evaluate our framework with real-world smartcard data of the largest city in China and use large-scale social crowd event data to further explain our model. The result shows that: (1) AOFD can detect abnormal out-flows that would later result in bursts in-flows with better performance and can send warning signal ahead of the time of burst passenger in-flow. (2) BIFPE can effectively estimate the peak time of burst in-flow and can reduce peak volume estimation error compared with the traditional passenger flow prediction models.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Early warning of burst passenger flow in public transportation system


    Contributors:
    Wang, Haiyang (author) / Li, Longyuan (author) / Pan, Pingjun (author) / Wang, Yongkun (author) / Jin, Yaohui (author)


    Publication date :

    2019-05-17


    Size :

    19 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




    Passenger car rear collision early warning system

    WANG SONG / LIU WEIDONG / DENG JING et al. | European Patent Office | 2022

    Free access

    Vehicle tire burst early warning device and system

    CHEN XIANGYANG | European Patent Office | 2021

    Free access

    Bus passenger number acquisition and early warning system

    ZHAO XIANMING / LIN YUN | European Patent Office | 2023

    Free access

    Passenger car networking pedestrian crossing early warning system

    WANG ZHE / GUO WEI / HUANG ZI'ANG et al. | European Patent Office | 2021

    Free access

    Passenger flow dynamic analysis early warning method and system and storage medium

    RUI JIANQIU / CHEN HONG / LIU JUN et al. | European Patent Office | 2021

    Free access