Climate change is here and mitigation efforts will not be enough to stop it. We need to adapt to its unavoidable impacts. At the same time, increasing anthropogenic influence on urban climates is leading to worsening urban heat stress. Increased amounts of impervious area, dark surfaces, and the barrier effect of large buildings reduce the ability of especially dense, inner-city areas to cool themselves. The effects of climate change inside the city can vary greatly across different neighborhoods. This is due to the diverse micro- and macroclimates within a city and their unique ecological and meteorological conditions. Urban heat islands, for example, can exhibit temperatures up to four or five Kelvin hotter than surrounding regions and, therefore, threaten the health and the lives of urban citizens. Three quarters of Europeans live in cities. Nevertheless, despite intensifying attention to the issues of heat stress and climate adaptation, CO2 reduction remains the primary focus of public policy. Whether cities are ready to take on the challenge of responding to these threats is a significant concern for the future. Germany is known for having numerous regulations, laws, programs, and institutions; and the situation surrounding climate change is no different. Whether and how all these legal and organizational features are used in practice and to what extent they further the success of adaptation work needs more investigation. In the framework of the German Research Foundation Research program 1736 Urban Climate and Heat Stress in mid-latitude cities in view of climate change (UCaHS), this work focuses, specifically on the treatment of these efforts in urban planning, specifically related to landscape, environmental, and land-use planning. It remains the case that planning and public policy lack an adequate body of knowledge about how to tackle urban heat stress, both legally and in the built environment. The administrative structure, legal context, and actions of major stakeholders were analyzed to help identify possible heat stress prevention and adaptation strategies, as well as the driving forces for and obstacles to their implementation. The climate adaptation plans of all German major cities and cities with a population density of 2,000 residents/ km2 and a population of at least 200,000 were evaluated to help illuminate how adaptation measures for heat stress have been implemented. Results showed a clear trend: despite the advancements made through the recent adoption of so many climate-related plans and programs, the movement towards adaptation to climate change is still cutting its teeth. Mitigation is still favored over real adaptation. Among the adaptation strategies that were chosen, so called ‘no regret’ strategies like greening or unsealing were preferred, i.e. those that were economically, ecologically, and socially useful, independent of their connection to climate change. Our study area, Berlin, was chosen as the best city for a case study about the role of climate adaptation plans in the implementation of adaptation measures. Berlin is Germany’s most populous city and is well-suited to the study because of its characteristic heterogeneity. To identify the driving forces and barriers for adaptation measures, we used Constellation Analysis and Bayesian Network methodologies. Constellation Analysis helps bridge interdisciplinary borders, incorporating all actors (persons or groups), symbols (laws or guidelines), institutions, and other elements (like green roofs or façade greening) in a system and depicting their relationships. To identify the set screws and the likelihood for the implementation of adaptation measures, we used Bayesian Networks. In order to gain the necessary knowledge for these methods, semi structured expert interviews and workshops were conducted in addition to document analysis. In order to investigate the role of adaptation plans at the various planning levels, the City Climate Development Plan of Berlin was analyzed as an example. Constellation Analysis showed that connections between the different actors, institutions, and tools involved in adaptation planning and implementation are still inadequate. It also highlighted the individual block level as the planning stage most relevant for the implementation of adaptation measures. In a further step and in cooperation with the Research Module 3.2 and 5.1 of the UCaHS Projekt, three scenarios were prepared using the constellation analysis. 1. A scenario with little political attention for the reduction of urban heat. 2. A scenario with political focus on the city center. 3. A scenario with political efforts for heat reduction for the entire city. The aim was to develop governance storylines in order to identify possible ways of dealing with urban heat. These enable decision-makers to look into the future and, thus, to adjust their behavior. In previous analyses, the local land-use plan level was seen as the most relevant for the implementation of adaptation measures. This leads to the question of whether adaptation concerns can successfully gain hold in urban planning and land-use plans. How will these measures be implemented? Urban and environmental planning play a vital role in this process. Bayesian Network analysis was used to explore the likelihood of the development of climate-adapted local land-use plans. This method depicts initial systems and the likelihood of certain outcomes in order to define networks of probabilities. The process relied on expert opinions gathered in numerous semi structured interviews at all levels with the Berlin stakeholders who are involved with implementation of the local land-use process. The analysis showed that the chances of the implementation of adaptation factors rely on a combination of different factors. These include the presence of investors and of an environmental assessment, as well as the individual and often very situational decisions made by the person responsible for the implementation of the plan. In order to make an environmental impact statement, and therefore the end assessment, mandatory, § 13a of the Federal Building Code would need to be changed. But it is important the keep in mind that the presence of rules in the Federal Building Code are not enough to drive adaptation – informed and dedicated stakeholders on all planning levels and in the population are also needed. In Berlin, adaptation has not been a significant part of formal city and regional planning documents and processes. These administrative tools do, however, contain measures that could address adaptation, though they do not directly mention it. Unlike the formal instruments, the informal City Climate Development Plan includes many comprehensive strategies to deal with the effects of climate change. The development of informal plans like the City Climate Development Plan, KONKRET, in summer 2016 which shows exact recommendations how to implement adaptation measures, or other programs like environmental justice studies and the climate planning details map also hint at progress. Such work to expand adaptation knowledge and strategies is still young. As long as an action is voluntarily, though, it will only be taken up by those who already understand its purpose and benefit from it. The others, who don’t know about or are not interested in adaptation, need to be given concrete and binding guidelines. A new round of policies, including the Renewable Energy Sources Act, the amendments to the landscape planning programs in summer 2016, and the planned adoption of the Berlin Energy and Climate Protection Program, which are at least obligatory for the public authorities, will all show how Berlin intends to tackle urban heat stress adaptation in the future.


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    Title :

    Driving forces and barriers for adaption strategies against the urban heat stress hazard in Berlin, Germany


    Additional title:

    Treibende Kräfte und Barrieren für Anpassungsstrategien gegen den urbanen Hitzestress am Beispiel Berlin, Deutschland


    Contributors:

    Publication date :

    2018



    Type of media :

    Miscellaneous


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



    Classification :

    DDC:    629



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