This work examines the effects automated driving can have on future mobility in Germany and its possible impact on the national vehicle fleet in terms of mileage, fleet size and energy demand. To illustrate passenger traffic, an agent-based simulation model is developed, set up on the survey data of "Mobilität in Deutschland 2008", which allows a description of the mobility behavior under different scenario conditions. Afterwards, possible developments which can lead to an increasing or decreasing demand for mobility are depicted in different scenarios. Subsequently, automated vehicle fleets are dimensioned to meet these mobility needs. They are either privately owned or used in a car sharing or ride sharing operating strategy. Freight transport is modeled by means of macroscopic scenarios based on scientific studies examining future freight traffic development. Additionally, possible effects of automated vehicle operation are considered. Subsequently, the total fleet energy demand is determined, taking vehicle specific energy consumption and efficiency gains of vehicle automation into account. The scenarios show that automated driving might have very varied effects on the future passenger vehicle traffic. Thus, an increase of up to 81 % compared to the 2014 mileage is possible if the mobility needs are satisfied by micro-vehicles and the traffic-enhancing effects of automated driving, such as the increase in activity levels or possible de-urbanization, apply. Despite this increase, the number of vehicles in this scenario can be reduced by approximately 79 %. In the case of a shrinking demand for motorized individual mobility, which can occur through increased political promotion of public transport and the absence of the above stated transport-promoting effects of vehicle automation, a reduction in mileage by 64% is possible using mini buses in ride sharing mode. The number of vehicles in the fleet can even be reduced by 93% compared to 2014.In contrast, freight transport services are growing in all scenarios. Without regarding automated vehicles, mileage is increasing by 66% compared to 2014. The introduction of automated vehicles and associated cost-cutting potential can increase the mileage by more than 100% compared to 2014. In passenger transport, it is apparent that energy demand depends most heavily on the chosen drive systems and the associated efficiencies as well as on the demand for individual mobility. In addition, it can be seen that the operation of the car-sharing fleets requires less energy than the ride-sharing fleets, since the vehicle design and the low specific energy consumption of the vehicles overcompensate the significantly higher fleet mileage. The lowest energy requirement can be observed for private ownership of fully automated vehicles, as in this case no empty runs and no detours have to be completed. In freight transport, only a minor difference in energy demand between the base scenario and the investigation of automated fleets can be noticed, as the assumed increases in energy efficiency of fully automated vehicles compensate for the significant increase in driving performance induced by increased transport demand. In contrast to 2014, however, it emerges that the final energy demand of road traffic is dominated by freight transport in all scenarios considered, so that its decarbonisation must be significantly expedited in order to achieve the climate protection goals.


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    Title :

    Der Einfluss des vollautomatisierten Fahrens auf den Mobilitäts- und Energiebedarf in Deutschland


    Additional title:

    The Influence of Fully Automated Driving on Mobility and Energy Demand in Germany



    Publication date :

    2021-01-01


    Size :

    1 Online-Ressource : Illustrationen, Diagramme pages


    Remarks:

    Dissertation, Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen, 2021; Aachen : RWTH Aachen University 1 Online-Ressource : Illustrationen, Diagramme (2021). = Dissertation, Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen, 2021



    Type of media :

    Miscellaneous


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    German