학위논문(석사)--서울대학교 대학원 :공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공,2019. 8. 구윤모. ; South Korea's electric vehicle market, whose growth has been accelerating since 2015, is not only driving changes in the sales of electric vehicles, but also in the electric power market. This study focuses on the air pollutant emissions caused by this diffusion of electric vehicles, based on the share of such vehicles in the passenger car market. It uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. In addition, based on the Bank of Korea's input-output statement, this study aimed to reflect the effects on the market share of electric vehicles. This research will allow us to quantitatively observe changes in the air pollutant emissions of electric vehicles as the market grows rapidly. Based on the CGE model, we analyzed policy scenarios in line with South Korea's roadmap for encouraging the adoption of electric vehicles. In addition, scenarios were analyzed considering different fuels to identify the ones that represent the most efficient reduction in emissions when replacing electric vehicles. Scenario results revealed that air pollution emissions from the transportation sector will decrease due to the spread of electric vehicles, but the primary metal industry associated with the battery industry will undergo expansion as the industry grows rapidly due to the production of electric vehicles. Accordingly, the four air pollutants, SOx, TSP, PM10, and PM2.5 were derived from the increase in air pollutants caused by the spread of electric vehicles, and the NOx and NH3 sectors also showed that much of the reduction effect expected by the transportation sector was offset by the emissions of other industries. This research reveals that only the transportation sector lacks quantitative changes to observe changes in the emission levels of air pollutants caused by the spread of electric vehicles, and that the calculation of emission levels should also consider the linkages among various industries. If the current industrial structure continues, the transportation sector’s policies to reduce emissions will instead increase the overall amount of air pollutants. This study suggests that direct and indirect effects of the industry as a whole should be considered to reduce emissions of air pollutants. ; 2015년 이후 가속화된 국내 전기차 시장은 전기차의 판매뿐 아니라 전기차에 수반되는 다양한 산업에도 변화를 주고 있다. 본 연구는 다양한 요인 중 승용차 시장에서 전기 차량의 비율에 따른 대기오염물질 배출 효과에 초점을 맞추고 있다. 이번 연구에서는 연산가능일반균형모델을 이용하여 전기차의 보급에 따른 대기오염물질 배출량을 분석한다. 또한 한국은행이 제공하는 산업연관표를 바탕으로 전기차의 시장점유율에 따른 산업별 영향을 반영하고자 하였다. 이 모형을 기반으로 우리나라 전기차 확산 로드맵에 따른 정책 시나리오를 분석하였다. 시나리오 결과는 전기차 확산으로 인해 수송부문의 대기오염배출량은 줄어들지만, 전기차 생산으로 인해 전지산업이 급성장함에 따라 전지산업에 수반되는 1차금속산업 역시 급등하는 것으로 나타났다. 이에 따라 SOx, TSP, PM10, PM2.5 네 가지 대기오염 물질에서는 전기차 확산으로 인한 대기오염물질이 오히려 증가하는 것으로 도출되었으며 NOx와 NH3 부문 역시 수송부문에서 기대했던 감축효과보다 많은 부분이 타 산업의 배출로 인해 상쇄되는 결과를 보였다. 이번 연구를 통해 전기차 확산으로 인한 대기오염물질 변화를 보기 위해 수송시장부문만의 정량적 변화 관측은 부족하며 전체 우리나라 산업 구조의 연관성을 파악해서 대기오염물질 배출량을 산정해야함을 알 수 있다. 지금과 같은 산업구조가 지속된다면 대기오염물질 배출 저감을 위한 수송부문의 정책만으로는 대기오염물질을 오히려 증가시킬 것이다. 이처럼 본 연구는 대기오염물질 배출 저감을 위해 산업 전체의 직, 간접적 효과를 종합적으로 고려해야함을 시사하고 있다. ; Contents v List of Tables viii List of Figures x Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Research Background 1 1.2 Research Purpose and Methodology 5 1.3 Outline of the Study 6 Chapter 2. Theoretical Background 8 2.1 Effect of Electric Vehicle on the Environment 8 2.2 General Equilibrium Analysis of Electric Vehicle Market 10 2.3 Overview of the Electric Vehicle Industry 12 2.3.1 Policy background 13 Chapter 3. Methodology 16 3.1 Construction of Social Accounting Matrix 16 3.1.1 Overview of SAM 16 3.1.2 Construction of SAM 17 3.1.3 Separation of Electric Vehicle (EV) sector 22 3.1.4 Transportation Segment Top-down Module 25 3.1.5 RAS 30 3.2 Construction of Computable General Equilibrium Model 30 3.2.1 Structure of CGE 31 3.2.2 Equation of CGE model 31 3.3 Configure Scenarios that reflect policies 43 3.3.1 Comparison of emissions of air pollutants 45 Chapter 4. Simulations and Results 47 4.1 Scenario A 50 4.2 Scenario B 56 4.3 Scenario C 60 4.4 Scenario D 65 Chapter 5. Conclusions 69 Bibliography 73 Abstract (Korean) 76 ; Master
Air Pollutant Emissions Effects of Electric Vehicle Diffusion ; 전기차 확산에 따른 대기오염물질 배출량 증감 효과 분석 : 연산가능 일반균형모형 접근을 통하여 ; Computable General Equilibrium Model Approach
2019-01-01
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Theses
Electronic Resource
English
DDC: | 629 |
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